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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.